FY 2025 / 2026 forecast

The forecast for 2025/2026 is based on the current composition of the group. It does not take account of the effects of potential portfolio measures. The economic conditions on which our forecast is based can be found in the subsection headed “Macro and sector environment” in the “Report on the economic position.” For the corresponding opportunities and risks see the “Opportunity and risk report,” which follows this subsection.

Estimating future economic development remains challenging overall. This applies to macroeconomic trends in general, as well as to the markets of relevance for thyssenkrupp: steel, automotive, materials and green technologies. At the same time, it is assumed that macroeconomic volatility will remain high in light of various geopolitical crises and vulnerabilities, for example as a result of the tariff policy in the USA and the response of other economies. The development of our key performance indicators could therefore be exposed to corresponding fluctuations. In light of the expected economic conditions as of the date of this forecast and the underlying assumptions, we consider the following view on fiscal year 2025/2026 to be appropriate.

■  Sales are likely to be in a range from (2)% to +1% compared with the prior year. In particular, the anticipated demand-induced growth at Materials Services and Steel Europe will likely be offset by corresponding declines at Automotive Technology and Decarbon Technologies.

■  We expect adjusted EBIT to be between €500 million and €900 million. Achievement of a figure within this corridor will be supported by restructuring effects and measures within the context of the APEX performance program, which is aimed at countering the persistently challenging market environment and sustainably improving operational performance.

■  Investments are likely to be between €1,400 million and €1,600 million. It includes a year-on-year increase in net payments in connection with the construction of the direct reduction plant at Steel Europe, taking account of the receipt of funding payments. In addition, investments for targeted growth initiatives in the other segments are planned. Investments will be approved on a restrictive basis, depending on the performance of the businesses and the group.

■  We expect free cash flow before M&A to be between €(600) million and €(300) million. It includes cash outflows of around €350 million for restructuring, primarily at Automotive Technology and Steel Europe. In addition, the payments profiles in the project businesses (especially prepayments at Marine Systems) have a major influence on the forecast development.

■  We expect net income to be between €(800) million and €(400) million. It includes the establishment of restructuring provisions, mainly at Steel Europe. In this connection, the tkVA is likely to be in the range of €(1,200) million to €(1,600) million and ROCE between (4)% and 0%.

We will take into account the development of our key performance indicators – also keeping in mind economic justifiability – in preparing our dividend proposal to the Annual General Meeting.

_{Source: thyssenkrupp Annual Report 2024/2025, page 188-189}