FY 2023 / 2024 forecast
Basic conditions and key assumptions
The realignment of the portfolio was implemented at the beginning of fiscal year 2023 / 2024 and the structure of thyssenkrupp was simplified (see Preliminary remarks in the management report). The prior-year sales and adjusted EBIT figures for the Automotive Technology and Decarbon Technologies segments are therefore presented on a pro forma basis. The forecast assumes no effects from additional portfolio measures.
The expected economic conditions and the main assumptions on which our forecast is based can be found in the section headed “Macro and sector environment” in the “Report on the economic position.” For the corresponding opportunities and risks see the “Opportunity and risk report,” which follows this section. We also expect a continuation of the challenging market environment and further volatile price levels on sales and procurement markets (e.g., for raw materials and energy). The development of sales and earnings could therefore be exposed to corresponding fluctuations.
Expectations for 2023 / 2024
Based on the expected economic conditions as of the date of this forecast and the underlying assumptions, we consider the following view on fiscal year 2023 / 2024 to be appropriate. Compared with the previous forecast in the Annual Report 2022 / 2023, the expectations for the group have been amended as follows:
Sales are now expected to be at the prior-year level (previously: slightly above the prior year), mainly because of the reduction in expected volumes at Steel Europe and Materials Services.
For net income, we now anticipate an increase to around break-even (previously: increase to a positive figure in the low to mid three-digit million euro range), principally as a result of interest rate-induced impairment losses in the 1st quarter of 2023 / 2024.
In line with this, we have also adjusted our expectations for tkVA to an increase to a negative figure of around €1 billion (previously: increase to a negative figure in the high three-digit million euro range) and for ROCE to an increase to a figure in the low to mid single-digit percentage range (previously: increase to a figure in the mid single-digit percentage range).
For further information on the expected development of our key performance indicators, please refer to the Forecast, opportunity and risk report in the Annual Report 2022 / 2023.
Expectations for the segments and the group
Fiscal year 2022 / 2023 | Forecast for fiscal year 2023 / 2024 | |||
Steel Europe | Sales | million € | 12,375 | Significantly below the prior year (previously: slightly below the prior year) |
Adjusted EBIT | million € | 320 | Increase; figure in the mid three-digit million euro range | |
Marine Systems | Sales | million € | 1,8321) | Significantly above the prior year |
Adjusted EBIT | million € | 731) | Increase; figure in the high two-digit million euro range | |
Automotive Technology | Sales | million € | 7,9102) | At the prior-year level (previously: slightly above the prior year) |
Adjusted EBIT | million € | 2662) | Increase; figure in the low to mid three-digit million euro range | |
Decarbon Technologies | Sales | million € | 3,4382) | Significantly above the prior year |
Adjusted EBIT | million € | 282) | Largely stable | |
Materials Services | Sales | million € | 13,613 | Slightly below the prior year (previously: at the prior-year level) |
Adjusted EBIT | million € | 178 | Increase; figure in the low three-digit million euro range | |
Corporate Headquarters | Adjusted EBIT | million € | (169) | Decrease; negative figure in the low three-digit million euro range |
Group | Sales | million € | 37,536 | At the prior-year level (previously: slightly above the prior year) |
Adjusted EBIT | million € | 703 | Increase to a figure in the high three-digit million euro range | |
Capital spending including IFRS 16 | million € | 1,823 | Significantly below the prior year | |
Free cash flow before M & A | million € | 363 | Decrease; figure in the low three-digit million euro range | |
Net income | million € | (1,986) | Increase to around break-even (previously: increase to a positive figure in the low to mid three-digit million euro range) | |
tkVA | million € | (2,818) | Increase to a negative figure of around €1 billion (previously: increase to a negative figure in the high three-digit million euro range) | |
ROCE | % | (9.3)% | Increase to a figure in the low to mid single-digit percentage range (previously: increase to a figure in the mid single-digit percentage range) |
Note on the forecast for sales and capital spending including IFRS 16: “Significantly” indicates a change of at least +/– 5% 1) Excluding Transrapid GmbH, which has been allocated to “Reconciliation” in the segment reporting since October 1, 2023 2) Pro forma |
Source: thyssenkrupp interim report 1st quarter 2023 / 2024, page 21-22